Luck Factor
Scoring a ton and still losing? Plug in your season and see how unlucky you’ve actually been. The scale goes from −1 (worst luck possible) to +1 (best luck possible). A 0 means your record is about right.
The quick estimate takes about 30 seconds. If you want the most accurate number, go week by week.
Four numbers from your standings page. Good for a ballpark.
For each week, where your score ranked in the whole league, and whether you won. Tied with another team? Split it: tied for 3rd is 3.5.
| Wk | Your score rank | Result |
|---|
How it’s scored
Each week, your chance of winning equals the share of the league you outscored. Rank 3 of 10 beats 7 of 9 other teams, so that week counts as a 78% win chance.
Those weekly chances produce every record you could have had. Your score is where your real record lands in that spread: Luck = 2 × (share of outcomes worse than yours + half the share equal to yours) − 1. A −0.90 means only 5% of possible seasons would have gone worse.
The quick estimate turns your points rank into a weekly win chance and pulls it toward 50%, since season totals overstate how often you’d win any given week.
Made by Phil Kaplan. Instagram @philjkaplan, X @goblinhomicide